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Factory output grows 4.2% in April; inflation cools to 4.25% in May.

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The week from June 12 to June 16, 2023, will be crucial for Domestic markets s and world markets because many critical data and decisions will be announced in the upcoming days. Data could directly affect the domestic market, including inflation, IIP, WPI data, etc. On the global front, various central banks' interest rate decisions and other crucial data will affect the equity market.

Starting the week with IIP and CPI inflation data--.

As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India's April industrial production growth rose to 4.2% from 1.7% in March 2023, mainly due to good performance by the manufacturing and mining sectors. Key data points from the data published:

  • The manufacturing sector's output grew 4.9% YoY in April 2023 but fell 6.1% from March to April.
  • Power generation declined 1.1% Y-o-Y in April 2023 and rose 2.2% from the previous month.
  • Mining output, however, rose by 5.1% during the month under review from a year ago but fell more than 20% from a month earlier.
  • The capital goods segment recorded a 6.2% growth in April from a year earlier but fell by roughly 23% month on month.
  • Consumer durables output declined by 3.5% from a year ago and fell by roughly 10% from a month earlier.
  • Consumer non-durable goods output grew by 10.7% on a yearly basis and M-O-M basis by 5.1%
  • Infrastructure/construction goods fell month over month by 6.8%.
  • Output of primary goods logged 1.9% growth in the month against 10.3% in the year-ago period.
  • The intermediate goods output in April grew by 0.8% compared to a 7.1% growth during the corresponding month last year.

 

Retail inflation dropped to 4.25% in May from 4.7% in the previous month as base effects weighed on the annual figures. The inflation data has fallen from 7.04% in the corresponding month last year.

Food inflation fell to 2.9% in May from 3.8% in April due to a high base effect. On a y-o-y basis, inflation was negative in vegetables, meat, oils & fats. Milk and milk products and egg inflation both rose on a y-o-y and m-o-m basis.

The risks of food inflation could rise as we move into the monsoon season. The sub-normal rainfall in June, uneven distribution of rains across regions during the season, cyclone Biparjoy's impact on weakening the monsoon's strength and rising El Nino probability could cause volatility in food prices.

Core inflation (excluding food, fuel, petrol, and diesel) eased to 5.66% in May from 5.8% in the previous month. Due to strong base effects, fuel and light inflation fell to 4.6% from close to 5.5% in April.

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