In a democracy, people express their opinions by voting and send a signal by choosing their leaders. In the recent state assembly elections, people handed over a lot of responsibility to the ruling party in the center, the BJP. New Year celebrations have been introduced early for Indian markets and the political party, BJP, as the strategy planning of Trio Modi-Shah-Nadda and execution by faces like party workers and cabinet members delivered yet again a big victory, even as the party suffered a massive setback from Karnataka earlier this year. The state assembly results were branded as a semi-final for the forthcoming May 24 Lok Sabha elections. The voters handed a big victory to the Bhartiya Janta Party in three Hindi belt states, regained Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and tightened the party's grip in Madhya Pradesh while retaining a big state for a fifth consecutive term, despite rumors of anti-incumbency related to the previous sitting chief minister.
Rajasthan | Chhattisgarh | |||||
2023 | 2018 | 2023 | 2018 | |||
BJP | 115 | 73 | BJP | 54 | 15 | |
Congress | 69 | 99 | Congress | 35 | 68 | |
Others | 15 | 27 | Others | 1 | 7 | |
Madhya Pradesh | Telangana | |||||
2023 | 2018 | 2023 | 2018 | |||
BJP | 163 | 109 | Congress | 64 | 19 | |
Congress | 66 | 114 | BHRS | 39 | 88 | |
Others | 1 | 7 | BJP | 8 | 1 | |
Others | 8 | 11 |
The big victory and gaining position in three states have not only indicated a big morale boost for the BJP cadre across the country ahead of the general election next year, but they have also given green signals to institution and investors, that political stability and demographic thinking in India are aligned with the growth formula of the sitting government in the center government. Investors want to see consistency of growth and progress in the country, and today’s big gap-up opening was an indication of trust that the same equation will be played if the government is giving consistent focus to growth.
The stock market had started factoring in an edge after the polls were out, as the market had a big green candle in the previous session and was standing on the position of a make-or-break moment. The market prior to the weekend had formed an ascending triangle formation if we draw a trend line from the fall of 2020. The market as of Friday wasn’t discounted to a 3-1 scoreboard, and hence today, Nifty and Sensex gave a break from formation by a big gap-up opening.
India's macro and micro fundamentals have managed to sustain levels, with 7.7% real GDP growth in the first half of fiscal 24, expansionary manufacturing and service PMI numbers, solid corporate earnings, and earnings momentum. Capital-intensive sectors are tearing up, with banks, oil and gas, and reliability up more than 2 percent.
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